Small Caps Podcast with Paul Scott – Episode 2 for 2023
A deluge of trading updates, we’ve been super-busy, covering a record 46 companies! Mostly in line updates, and surprisingly some ahead of expectations ones too. 8 profit warnings.
Market conditions have dramatically improved in the last couple of months, and have felt frenzied this week, with some staggering rebounds in small cap share prices, which seems quite indiscriminate. So I’m a little wary that euphoria might give way to profit-taking. So I discuss both bull & bear points, and some improving macro outlook considerations.
Thank you for all the interesting feedback last week, keep it coming, I read and enjoy your contributions, and it helps me understand if people are finding these podcasts useful, or whether I’m howling into a wilderness!!
Best wishes, Paul.
Great podcast as usual
*Private vehicles are about 50% of new car registrations. So effect is 1m new vehicles reduction on household budgets.
Thanks Paul, another great listen. I heard Howard Davies this morning saying that customer bank balances at Nat West still showed high levels of savings built up over the Covid period, when people were still earning but couldn’t spend, that were now enabling consumer demand to stay strong despite fuel costs etc.
I have also not seen any comment on car sales which are a big part of customer expenditure, second only to buying a house. Sales in 20, 21 and 22 have been about 700,000 per annum below the previous typical run-rate in the UK. That’s 2.1m less new cars and a few hundred pounds a month per car not being paid out in finance charges and therefore available for other purposes. Another positive for consumer demand I think.
I look forward to your podcasts at the weekend, always food for thought and additional comments to the daily SVCR too, thank you!
jolly good
Stocks Just Flashed A Key Bull Market Signal
The 10-day ratio of advancing to declining stocks on the New York Stock Exchange was so strong it triggered only the 25th breakaway momentum signal since 1949.
Breakaway momentum occurs when the ratio of advancing to declining stocks exceeds 1.97 over ten days.
This breadth thrust measure is uncommon, only occurring 25 times since 1949, including yesterday.
The S&P 500 has posted positive full-year returns in 23 of 24 past occurrences.
Thanks Paul – great run down to be digested over the next couple of days
Anne
Thanks Anne, I’m glad it was useful, and I hope the sheer volume of material didn’t overwhelm you! Best wishes, Paul.